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Damned if you do and damned if you don’t

Brisban Times link-bait:

ORDERS for the iPhone 5 are almost sold out before its launch on Friday, leading some Apple faithful and marketing experts to question whether the company has engineered the sell-outs for marketing reasons.

Those wanting to get their hands on an iPhone 5 as soon as possible should prepare to queue at an Apple shop as online shipping times have blown out to two or three weeks and carriers have mostly run out of pre-order stock.

If the launch of the iPhone 5 didn’t sell out, it’d be a failure. But because it’s sold out it’s now a marketing ploy? Could it be simply because a lot of people want one and pre-ordered?

From MarketWatch:

Apple Inc. said Monday morning that pre-orders of the iPhone 5 surpassed the 2 million unit mark in the first 24 hours — more than double the initial sales of last year’s 4S model.

Ok, so Apple doubled iPhone pre-orders compared to the 4S. Let’s use the assumption that Apple will approximately double the amount of iPhones it is going to sell initally.

Forbes back in 2011 on the iPhone 4S launch:

Now, in the weekend following its release, the iPhone 4S has moved four million units across the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Canada, Japan and Australia.

Apple sold 4 million units over the first weekend of the iPhone 4S being available. If we use the assumption above, Apple will sell approximately 8 million units of the iPhone 5. However, there’s other factors to consider:

  1. Apple has a lot more retail stores than it did a year ago
  2. The iPhone is launching in more countries initially than it did a year ago
  3. The iPhone is available on more carriers that it was a year ago

If anything, those 3 reasons will only increase the number of iPhones available.

Don’t kid yourself because you think the iPhone 5 wasn’t all it’s cracked up to be, I’d be quite reasonable in saying Apple will hit 10 million units sold in the first weekend after worldwide availability (weekend of the 29/30th September).

This was no marketing ploy or artificial shortage.